Apr 1, 2021
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David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to
update listeners on his prediction of a 'parabolic melt-up' in risk
assets that will be followed by a 'deflationary' bust.
Over the course of the 40-minute conversation, Hunter also updates
his forecasts for rates, technology stocks, commodities, and
This podcast was recorded the morning of Monday, March 22 and
made available to premium subscribers that same day.
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of
the segment directly)
- The coming 'parabolic melt-up': new targets for stocks and
bonds and timing (3:01);
- What will cause the bust: The Fed will be forced to tighten,
despite chairman Powell's current (sincere) views. This will not
likely be by raising interest rates but by tapering bond purchases
- Unlike many of his predecessors, Powell is actually trying to
be transparent so those conspiracy theories (including one voiced
by the host) are probably wide of the mark (9:36);
- "It won't take a big tightening to send us back in the other
direction in a hurry." People are underestimating how fast this can
- For now the stimulus checks and reopenings have not worked
there way through the economy yet. They may not have even started.
This will lead to the "final, vertical phase" of the melt-up
- The coming bust will see a 80% correction, peak to trough
- What comes after that: the deflationary bust (32:02).
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