Sep 2, 2020
University of Oxford economist John Kay joins the podcast to discuss his recent book, "Radical Uncertainty" and its lessons for financial markets in the age of COVID-19.
Content (Spotify users can skip to the segment by clicking on the timestamp):
- The premise for the book: Frank Knight, Milton Friedman and the pendelum of probabilistic reasoning (1:20);
- It is "almost impossible to overstate" the influence of efficient market reasoning on economic and financial market models (4:02);
- Radical uncertainty: There is a great deal of information that cannot be realistically thought about probabilistically. Enter COVID-19 (8:20);
- What's an investor to do with this information? (10:15);
- Financial modeling has conflated risk, uncertainty, and volatility. They aren't the same thing (12:53);
- Time horizons and the importance of imagination. Humans are natural story tellers. This is more important than pure maths (20:24);
- Where does real estate fit? (25:25);
- Background on the guest (30:28);
- What is the market getting wrong right now? (34:37);
- Short discussion of the U.S. election (41:04).
More Information on the Guest
- Website: JohnKay.com
- Twitter: @ProfJohnKay
- Book: Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making for an unknowable future (also available on Amazon).
Not intended as investment advice.